“Hear me out . . .”

 

Words that are usually spoken before a really sketchy or bizarre idea is brought up. With that in mind, please waste some time with me for a few minutes about this outside-of-the-box realignment idea that could save the institution and power status known as the Pac-12. 

 

I’ll start by saying this. During times of big changes, you need new and big ideas. In order to intrigue the masses, you must set yourself apart or be a trailblazer.

 

One of my favorite quotes also gives you a preview of the theme you will read throughout this idea:

 

“The best way to predict the future is to create it” - Peter Drucker

 

We know the PAC 12 is dead and the 4PAC is all but done. We know the AAC wants the 4PAC & so does the MWC. It’s pretty clear that neither of those conferences with the 4PAC are a Power 5 conference. On top of that, the AAC has 10 years on their media contract and the MWC has exorbitant buyouts to the tune of $34MIL per team on its 2 years remaining in their media contract.

 

So hear me out. 

 

Merge the AAC into the PAC, merge the MWC too & put all of those teams together as the first true superconference under the PAC umbrella (sorry Hawaii, Navy & Wichita State… you aren’t full members of your conferences and won’t be invited).

 

A superconference of 28 teams surely deserves P5 status. Here's something else to think about; when the ACC is poached and over with, surely the SuperPAC deserves a P4 status.

 

You might ask “what’s in it for the B1G, Big 12 & SEC” and why would it help them? More bids. The P4 could then command 2 bids each for the College Football Playoff. This could include every team that makes their championship game. Then, because you only have a G3 remaining, they offer 1 autobid for the top ranked G3 team without looking as sleazy as the Power 5 has looked in the past for all but shutting them out. This leaves 3 extra bids for the top ranked P4 teams that haven’t already secured a bid. 

 

We all know that the SEC, B1G & Big 12 think they’d get that all to their own “true power” teams, right?

 

So what is in it for the AAC, MWC & 4PAC? Relevance. Power conference status. MONEY. All of the AAC money coming in from the NCAA can be rolled into the PAC in a merger. All of the MWC money can be rolled into the PAC in a merger. The PAC can actually keep its money and its assets. 

 

Kliavkoff has got to go though. Perhaps Nevarez from the MWC can take over. Maybe Oliver Luck can be in the main office. Anybody but Kliavkoff.

 

Back to the money. Some reports have indicated that the PAC will have $200-400MIL in their war chest. The AAC, MWC & PAC have millions in annual payments coming in for performance in football & basketball which will be paid for years to come. It’s a good starting point and the SuperPAC won’t have to worry about using the war chest for buyouts.

 

It will be even better if they create performance based payouts starting with all of the money coming into the conference like the $8 Million SDSU raked in from the NCAA Tournament for the MWC. Oh, FAU raked that in too for the AAC. NY6 participants get a big check (right Tulsa?) and apologies to the defectors headed towards the B1G & Big12, you can’t take the money with you. Remember, we’re thinking of big changes which means doing things in a different way. 

 

All of the performance money coming in should then be distributed with a heavy slant to those that performed instead of everyone getting a fair share for not doing their fair share of WINNING. This isn’t a charity anymore. Football performance pays 25% of the payout to the team that was doing the winning with the remaining 75% split amongst the conference. Basketball performance pays 50% of the payout to the team that was doing the winning with 50% distributed among the rest of the SuperPac. 

 

So, schools who have performed during the payout time frame, you just earned a big chunk of money each year until the payout expires. An example using FAU’s magical NCAA Tournament run would mean they are paid $667,000 extra a year for the 5 years remaining on the 6 year payout while the rest of the conference would earn about $25,000 each. Currently in the AAC, Florida Atlantic would only be receiving $95,000 of that each year for 6 years. The same $95K that SMU will get after having a 10-22 record last season. It doesn’t make sense to do payouts this way any more.

 

While we’re on the topic of money, what about TV?

 

Talk about inventory! 28 teams is a lot of inventory. The AAC currently has an ESPN deal (mostly ESPN+) which pays $7MIL but each school pays production costs which takes away from that dollar amount (almost to the tune of $3MIL) with a take home of around $4MIL per team in media. The MWC has a $4MIL per team deal straight up with CBS & Fox (mostly CBSsports Network & FS1). The Pac-12 had a $25MIL per team deal with ESPN & Fox plus they have the infamous PAC12 Network. 

 

These media companies already have $442MIL inked in on the books for these 3 conferences. About a $12MIL per team average in current media contract money.

 

ESPN just had a lot of West Coast inventory ripped away from them. They aren’t happy about it. They need and want more of it. That just might be a good thing. Especially when taking a look at the media landscape of these 3 conferences. ESPN is already working with 2 of them. Fox is already working with 2 of them. CBS is working with one of them. This could create a vacuum where there is some competition, albeit for vastly smaller dollars than the SEC & B1G get and substantially lower than the Big 12 gets . . . but competition for inventory nonetheless.

 

The SuperPac could pull in $15MIL for this much T1/T2 inventory and it’s at a virtual break even of what they were paying the three conferences before. I know, I know. That was with Oregon, Washington, USC & UCLA, etc. but that was a deal made over a decade ago and there wasn’t as much of an inventory need. This is where the ESPN needing West Coast teams & FOX & CBS not wanting to be left out in the cold with inventory on their sports channels comes into play. 

 

CBS Sports, FS1, FS2 & ESPN+ would be losing a huge chunk of inventory with this merger. They’ll battle a bit and I think the going rate would be around the $12-15MIL per team mark or more. If not, wouldn’t APPLE be interested in this much inventory and for $10MIL less than the $25MIL per team they offered the PAC 12? Could 28 teams earn the subscription incentives simply because of the sheer number of teams and fans? Perhaps.

 

This much inventory could even pull in a great Tier 3 media haul of cash. Oh, and since we’re thinking outside of the box, we might as well decouple football and basketball media contracts to maximize the money coming in. Blaze the trail! Be a disruptor!! Create the future!!!

 

For those of you bored or angry with money in collegiate sports, you may be asking how this could possibly work logistically as a conference. The answer is going to be tough for the old school people that are still hanging with me in this SuperPac scenario.

 

This isn’t your grandpappy’s conference. 

 

For the SuperPac, you would have 4 divisions of 7 teams. Let’s start with the divisions and then we’ll get to the logistics of how they could play their seasons. 

 

Pacific Division: SDSU, Fresno State, San Jose State, Stanford, Cal, Nevada & UNLV

 

Mountain Division: Washington State, Oregon State, Boise State, Wyoming, Utah State, Colorado State, Air Force

 

Plains Division: New Mexico, SMU, Rice, UNT, UTSA, Tulsa & Tulane

 

South Division: Memphis, UAB, USF, FAU, Charlotte, East Carolina & Temple

 

For football, the SuperPac would need to go to a 9 game in-conference season with a 2 game non-conference slate. What happens to the 12th game? Conference playoff games & consolation match-ups for everyone else. Repeat after me. New & big ideas. Conference playoff money.

 

For the regular season, the SuperPac has protected Division play, with a sister division link. Let’s take Stanford. Stanford every year would play their division-mates (6 teams). The other 3 games would be from each of the other divisions. If they were to make the playoffs, they would face their sister division which in this case would be the Mountain Division. If they did not make the playoffs, they would have a scheduled game for the last week of the season vs a Sister Division team in somewhat of a consolation game. 

 

The Pacific Division winner would play the Mountain Division winner in a playoff while the Plains Division winner would play the South Division winner. The victor of those two matchups would then play in the Championship game. This also gives them quality teams to add to their resume for the at large CFP bids.

 

For basketball, it would be 20 conference games with 10 or more non-conference games. As an example here, UNT would play the 6 teams in their Plains Division every year plus the 7 teams in the sister South Division. That is 13 games. The other 7 would be alternating every year between the entire Pacific Division and the entire Mountain Division as opponents.

 

A SuperPAC Conference Tournament would be a little tricky, but still doable. Oh, and it happens in Las Vegas, but not at the Thomas & Mack! Those days are over. Who doesn’t love Vegas by the way? It would be great to figure out a similar situation to the WCC where the top two teams get a triple bye, some teams get a double bye and some other teams get a single bye while the rest of the lowest seeds battle in the first round to be able to move forward. Most likely encapsulated in a 5 day tournament. 

 

Perhaps the 1 & 2 seeds get a triple bye, the 3 & 4 seeds get a double bye and the 5-12 seeds get a single bye. Are there any bracket creation gurus out there that can whip up a bracket for the SuperPac? We probably need a mathematician to get this all worked out.

 

All other sports would have the same Divisions and would weigh sister division teams heavier than other division teams to fill their schedule similar to the football & basketball examples.

 

So there you have it. The very first superconference, which is also a power conference due to sheer numbers, known as the SuperPac.

 

Thanks for hearing me out.

 

Now, as a habits, action & accountability focused coach, I always like to weave in a lesson or two that we can learn from the conversation and we will do this for this SuperPac thought experiment. Besides the mantra that you can only predict the future by creating it, we can take away a few more lessons. 

 

1. If things aren’t working and the days look dark, you have to take drastic measures, make sound decisions & take uncomfortable action in order to move forward towards your legacy.

2. You never know when your money will dry up. It’s not wise to spend, spend, spend when you have it because there will be a day when the money is not coming in like you are used to. Think about keeping 3-6 months of expenses in savings for those dark days. 

3. Don’t keep doing the same things you have done. Times change. Have a growth mindset. If you make decisions based on how things used to be or because it is in your comfort zone, you may find yourself being passed by in life.

 

The Pac 12 thought they were too good of an athletic conference, too good as a group of elite academic universities to add the schools they should have added in order to survive in today’s realignment landscape. They refused to create the future.

 

They were comfortable. They thought they were worth more than they were and they spent their way into issues. This has placed them on the verge of extinction. Unless the remaining teams leave the pride, pretentiousness & past popularity behind them and go for grand greatness in numbers, they just may end up destroying a once great institution of college athletics.